2024 Rider Tiers Half 2: Who’re the highest one-day contenders heading into the upcoming season? Spencer Martin breaks down the place every high Monument contender stands as we method the 2024 season.

– This text is an excerpt from the Past the Peloton publication. Enroll right here for full entry. –

Grand Excursions and one-day Classics for Tadej Pogačar

As the beginning date for the 2024 season continues to march nearer, we’ll proceed to take inventory of who the game’s elite riders are in every main self-discipline (grand excursions, one-classics & stage successful) heading into 2024 to present us a clearer view of what to anticipate when these main occasions roll round.

Rating The High 2024 One-Day Contenders

To construct off final week’s tiering of the highest 2024 Grand Tour contenders, we’re separating the highest one-day Monument* contenders into 5 tiers this week. To delineate them into tiers, I’m considering 1) high three ends in World-Tour-level one-day races over the previous 4 seasons, with outcomes generated just lately given extra emphasis, 2) their age, and, most significantly 3) their probability to generate outcomes (wins) in WorldTour-level one-day races (complete WordTour one-day calendar plus Kuurne-Bruxelles-Kuurne) the 2024 season.

*’Monuments’ seek advice from a collection of races that comprise the 5 most essential one-day races on the calendar. Learn extra right here.

Which Traditional will we see the rainbow bands cross the end line first?

Why This Is Useful

As I outlined final week, the aim of this train is to try to objectively minimize via the noise and see who the perfect riders in every self-discipline are. That is particularly essential within the trendy panorama since there may be an odd inversion the place the much less a rider produces, the extra media protection they obtain.

Possibly not so many Classics for Evenepoel in 2024?

The Standards

Whereas there’s a practically limitless array of each established and rising one-day skills, to qualify for the highest 4 tiers, a rider should have both gained a Monument, or World Championship street race, previously 4 seasons or landed on a Monument or World Championship podium throughout the previous two years, in addition to having ends in latest seasons that point out a capability to proceed successful sooner or later.

• This criterion is actually not excellent, and sure to go away out proficient up-and-coming one-day riders, like Neilson Powless, Matteo Jorgenson, Magnus Sheffield, and Quinn Simmons, who might go on to win a number of main one-day races sooner or later. Nonetheless, only for the sake of protecting the listing manageable for this train, I’m largely filtering out the sort of rider who’s hanging across the high ten of main one-day races by solely together with riders who’ve scored main world one-day victories.
• I could get burned by this if one in every of these riders wins a Monument in 2024, however, normally, a rider often finishes inside the highest few locations earlier than successful at high one-day races (Remco Evenepoel’s 2019 San Sebastian victory is an instance of a latest outlier).

Beneath, every rider is listed of their BTP designated tier together with the age they are going to be racing at in 2024:

The Tiers:

Tier 1:
Reserved for riders who’ve confirmed a capability to win the game’s greatest one-day races in opposition to the game’s finest competitors in recent times and have the power to take action in 2024. That is clearly an extremely elite group made up of riders who’ve the uncommon mixture of elite expertise and up to date real-world outcomes to again that expertise up.

Tadej Pogačar (25)

• 2023: 1st@Flanders, 1st@Amstel Gold, 1st@Fleche Wallonne, 1st@IlLombardia, third@WorldChampionshipsRR, third@E3
• 2022: 1st@Lombardia, 1st@Strade, 1st@GP Montreal
• 2021: 1st@Lombardia, 1st@Liège
• 2020: third@Liège
• Totals: 5xMonument wins, 6xMonument Podiums, 1xWC podium, 4xother WT one-day wins

Lombardia’23 – Pogačar

Mathieu van der Poel (29)

• 2023: 1st@MilanoSanremo, 1st@ParisRoubaix, 1st@WorldChampionshipRR, 2nd@Flanders, 2nd@E3
• 2022: 1st@Flanders, 1st@Dwars, third@Sanremo
• 2021: 1st@Strade, 2nd@Flanders, third@Paris-Roubaix, third@E3
• 2020: 1st@Flanders
• Totals: 4xMonument wins, 8xMonument podium, 1xWC win, 4xotherWT podiums, 2xotherWT wins

Roubaix’23 – Van der Poel

Wout van Aert (29)

• 2023: third@Paris-Roubaix, third@MilanoSanremo, 2nd@WorldChampionshipRR, 1st@E3, 2nd@Gent-Wevelgem
• 2022: 1st@Omloop, 1st@E3, 1st@Bretagne, 2nd@Paris-Roubaix, 2nd@GPMontreal, 2nd@Bemer, third@Liège
• 2021: 1st@Amstel Gold, 1st@GentWevelgem, 2nd@OlympicsRR, third@Sanremo
• 2020: 1st@Sanremo, 1st@Strade, 2nd@Flanders, 2nd@WorldChampionshipRR
• Totals: 1xMonument win, 7xMonument podium, 2xWC podium, 10xotherWT podiums, 7xotherWT wins, , 1xOlympic podium

Flanders’23 – Van Aert

Remco Evenepoel (24)

• 2023: 1st@Liège, 1st@San Sebastian
• 2022: 1st@Liège, 1st@San Sebastian, 1xWorld Championship RR
• 2021: N/A
• 2020: N/A
• Totals: 2xMonument win, 1xWC win, 2xother WT wins

San Sebastian’23 – Evenepoel

Tier 2:
Riders who’ve each gained previously, and will win in 2024, main one-day Monuments, and different World Tour one-day races. These riders might be thought of severe potential winners throughout the one-days in 2024 if they’re on the beginning listing.

Jasper Philipsen (25)

• 2023: 1st@Brugge-De Panne, 2nd@Paris-Roubaix
• 2022: N/A
• 2021: 1st@Eschborn Frankfurt, 2nd@Brugge-De Panne
• 2020: N/A
• Totals: 1xMonument podium, 2xother WT wins, 3xother WT podiums

Scheldeprijs’23 – Philipsen

Tom Pidcock (24)

• 2023: 1st@Strade, 2nd@Liege, third@Amstel
• 2022: third@Dwars
• 2021: 2nd@Amtstel, third@Kuurne-Bruxelles-Kuurne
• 2020: N/A
• Totals: 1xMonument podium, 1xother WT win, 5xotherWT podiums

Strade Bianche’23 – Pidcock

Christophe Laporte (31)

• 2023: 1st@Gent-Wevelgem, 1st@DwarsdoorVlaanderen, third@Omloop
• 2022: 2nd@WorldChampionshipRR, 2nd@Gent-Wevelgem, 2nd@E3
• 2021: 2nd@Dwars door Vlaanderen
• 2020: N/A
• Totals: 2xother WT wins, 6xotherWT podiums, 1xWC podium

Wevelgem’23 – Laporte

Primož Roglič (34)

• 2023: third@IlLombardia
• 2022: N/A
• 2021: 2nd@FlècheWallone
• 2020: 1st@Liège
• Totals: 1xMonument win, 2xMonument podium, 1xother WT podium

Emilia’23 – Roglič

Dylan van Baarle (31)

• 2023: 1st@Omloop
• 2022: 1st@Paris-Roubaix, 2nd@Flanders
• 2021: 1st@Dwars, 2nd@WorldChampionshipRR
• 2020: N/A
• Totals: 1xMonument win, 2xMonument podium, 1xWC podium, 2xotherWT win

Omloop Het Nieuwsblad’23 – Van Baarle

Tier 3:
Riders who’re in a position to win, however not be the outright favourite, at a very good variety of Monuments this coming season, however may very seemingly decide off a win at different main one-day races in 2024.

Mads Pedersen (28)

• 2023: third@Flanders, 1st@Bemer Traditional
• 2022: N/A
• 2021: 1st@Kuurne-Bruxelles-Kuurne
• 2020: 1st@Gent-Wevelgem
• Totals: 1xMonument podium, 3xotherWT win

Flanders’23 – Pedersen

Matej Mohorič (29)

• 2023: third@Kuurne-Bruxelles-Kuurne
• 2022: 1st@MilanoSanremo
• 2021: 2nd@SanSebastian
• 2020: N/A
• Totals: 1xMonument win, 2xotherWT podium

Kuurne’23 – Mohorič

Valentin Madouas (27)

• 2023: 1st@Bretagne Traditional, 2nd@Strade
• 2022: third@Flanders
• 2021: N/A
• 2020: N/A
• Totals: 1xMonument podium, 1xother WT win, 2xother WT podiums

Bretagne’23 – Madouas

Tier 4:
These riders have an out of doors likelihood of successful and a very good likelihood at podium finishes at non-Monument one-day races in 2024. As a result of chaotic nature of one-day racing, if issues go their manner, any of them may win even the most important races, however their various locations on the age/expertise curve, skills, groups, and using kinds make them far much less prolific winners.

For instance, whereas Tiesj Benoot has confirmed he can win large races once in a while, the finale has to unfold in a sure manner as a consequence of his lack of a dash end, and whereas Arnaud De Lie has emerged as one of many strongest younger riders within the sport, and a prolific winner at lower-level races, he hasn’t been in a position to leverage that expertise into constant elite one-day outcomes.

Kasper Asgreen (29)

• 2023: N/A
• 2022: third@Strade
• 2021: 1st@Flanders, 1st@E3
• 2020: 1st@Kuurne-Bruxelles-Kuurne
• Totals: 1xmonument win, 1xmonument podium, 1xotherWTwins, 3xother WT podiums (together with Kuurne)

Flanders’23 – Asgreen

Andrea Bagioli (24)

• 2023: 2nd@IlLombardia
• 2022: third@GP Montréal
• 2021: N/A
• 2020: N/A
• Totals: 1xMonument podium, 1xotherWT podium

Gran Piemonte’23 – Bagioli

Michael Matthews (32)

• 2023: third@GP Québec
• 2022: 2nd@GP Quebec, third@WorldChampionshipRR
• 2021: N/A
• 2020: 1st@Bretagne, third@MilanoSanremo
• Totals: 1xotherWT wins, 3xother WT podiums, 1xWC podium

Bretagne’23 – Matthews

Tiesj Benoot (29)

• 2023: 1st@Kuurne-Bruxelles-Kuurne, third@Strade
• 2022: 2nd@Dwars door Vlaanderen, third@San Sebastian, third@Amstel
• 2021: N/A
• 2020: N/A
• Totals: 1xother WT win, 5xother WT podiums

Fkèche Wallonne’23 – Bennot

Arnaud De Lie (21)

• 2023: 1st@GP Québec, 2nd@Omloop
• 2022: N/A
• 2021: N/A
• 2020: N/A
• Whole: 1xother WT win, 2xother WT podiums

Qubec’23 – De Lie

Tier 5:
A set of the game’s high one-day skills who both lack a Monument win within the final 4 seasons or, within the case of Jasper Stuyven and Julian Alaphilippe, have didn’t show a capability to persistently replicate race-winning performances on the greatest races in latest seasons.

Biniam Girmay (23)

• 2023: N/A
• 2022: 1st@Gent-Wevelgem, third@GP Montreal
• 2021: N/A
• 2020: N/A
• Totals: 1xotherWT win, 2xotherWT podiums

Flanders’23 – Girmay

Ben Healy (23)

• 2023: 2nd@Amstel
• 2022: N/A
• 2021: N/A
• 2020: N/A
• Totals: 1xMonument podium, 1xotherWT podium

Liège’23 – Healy

Julian Alaphilippe (31)

• 2023: N/A
• 2022: N/A
• 2021: 1st@WorldChamionshipRR, 1st@LaFleche, 2nd@Liege, 2nd@Bretange
• 2020: 1st@WorldChamionshipRR, 2nd@MilanoSanremo, 2nd@Strade
• Totals: 2xWC wins, 1xMonument podium, 1xotherWT wins, 3xotherWT podiums

Flanders’23 – Alaphilippe

Jasper Stuyven (31)

• 2023: N/A
• 2022: N/A
• 2021: 1st@MilanoSanremo
• 2020: 1st@Omloop
• Totals: 1xmonument win, 1xotherWT win

Sanremo’23 – Stuyven

Marc Hirschi (25)

• 2023: N/A
• 2022: N/A
• 2021: N/A
• 2020: 2nd@Liège, third@WorldChampionship RR, 1st@LaFlèche
• Totals: 1xmonument podium, 1xWorldChampionship podium, 1xother WT win

Coppa Sabatini’23 – Hirschi

Anthony Turgis (28)

• 2023: N/A
• 2022: 2nd@MilanoSanremo
• 2021: 2nd@Kuurne-Bruxelles-Kuurne
• 2020: N/A
• Totals: 1xMonument podium, 1xother WT podium

E3 Harelbeke – Turgis

Quinten Hermans (28)

• 2023: N/A
• 2022: 2nd@Liege, third@Bremer
• 2021: N/A
• 2020: N/A
• Totals: 1xMonument podium, 1xotherWT podium

Antwerp’23 – Hermans

Key Takeaways

1) The flexibility to win the highest one-day races is turning into increasingly more concentrated with the higher echelon of riders

• What stood out probably the most when constructing this listing is the sheer rarity of riders who’re in a position to persistently win the game’s greatest one-day races.
• In actual fact, solely ten lively riders have gained a Monument within the final 4 seasons (out of 20 complete races), with simply three riders, Mathieu van der Poel, Tadej Pogačar, and Remco Evenepoel, accounting for over 50% of wins at these 20 races.
• Along with high wins clustering with a couple of high riders, one other mind-bending development is how the lists of high grand tour riders and high one-day riders mix collectively.
• For instance, half of the Tier 1 riders had been additionally included within the two high tiers of the Grand Tour rider rankings, and three Grand Tour riders, Evenepoel, Pogačar, and Primož Roglič, landed within the high two tiers on one-day racers.
• Some may discover the development of some high riders often successful the game’s high races and having roughly the identical kind throughout the whole season, however this does intently adhere to logic and is doubtlessly even linked to the game being cleaner than previously.
• In virtually each high-level sport, the highest performers are the perfect performers throughout practically each competitors, and it tracks that this might be the identical in biking.

Pogačar and Evenepoel in Tier 1 of the Classics and Grand Tour riders

2) One-day dominance can be being concentrated at a couple of high groups

• Tier Staff Energy Rankings:
  1) Visma: 1xTier 1, 2xTier 2, 1xTier 5
  2) Soudal-QuickStep: 1xTier 1, 1xTier 4, 1xTier 5
  3) Alpecin-Deceuninck: 1xTier 1, 1xTier 2, 1xTier 5
  4) UAE: 1xTier 1, 1xTier 5
  5) Lidl-Trek: 1xTier 3, 1xTier 4, 1xTier 5
  6) Ineos: 1xTier 2
  7) Bora: 1xTier 2
  8) Groupama-FDJ: 1xTier 3
  9) Jayco: 1xTier 4
  10) EF: 1xTier 5
  11) Lotto: 1xTier 5
  12) Intermarché: 1xTier 5
  13) TotalEnergies: 1xTier 5
• Whereas their sweep of each 2023 grand tour made it manifestly apparent that Jumbo-Visma (quickly to be Visma-Lease a Bike) is the game’s high grand tour workforce, with a complete of 4 tiered riders, together with a rider in Tier 1, two in Tier 2, their assortment of top-tier one-day Classics workforce can be sport-leading.
• Soudal-QuickStep’s decline within the Northern Cobbled Classics has been nicely documented, however surprisingly, primarily because of the presence of Remco Evenepoel, they’re nonetheless a formidable squad throughout the game’s high one-day races.
• Alpecin-Deceuninck might have beforehand been a top-heavy squad that revolved round Mathieu van der Poel, however the emergence of Jasper Philipsen as a bonafide one-day contender has given the workforce depth on the high finish that solely Jumbo-Visma can surpass.
• UAE could also be constructing an especially deep-stage racing program, however relating to one-day races, they’re nonetheless closely depending on Tadej Pogačar.
• Regardless of a plethora of younger expertise and cash, Ineos solely has a single-tiered rider.

Jasper Philipsen now a bonafide one-day contender

3) Each side of contemporary skilled biking is formally a younger man’s sport

• We’ve heard in regards to the youth wave taking on the game for years, however nothing underlines this development like the truth that simply six out of the 24 (25%) complete riders who certified for the 2024 One-Day Tier rankings are below the age of thirty.
• Two veteran stars, Michał Kwiatkowski (33) and Alberto Bettiol (30), didn’t even qualify for 2024’s one-day tiers.
• Just some years in the past, a rider wouldn’t have been thought of in a position to contest the most important one-day races till that they had years of expertise below their belt and had developed their bodily system to deal with 200+ kilometer races.
• Nonetheless, the trendy period has made this knowledge, which till just lately was virtually universally accepted till just lately, seem practically utterly unfaithful.

Not for the old-men – Michał Kwiatkowski

– This text is an excerpt from the Past the Peloton publication. Enroll right here for full entry. –

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