The 2024 Tour de France has the opportunity of setting historical past. Mark Cavendish may take the Tour stage win document subsequent yr, breaking the joint complete held by himself and Eddy Merckx – Thirty-four wins. However, based on knowledge, that probability is nil.

The Tour win document holders Mark Cavendish and Eddy Merckx

The World’s finest ever bike owner of all time, Eddy Merckx, holds many biking information, together with the variety of stage victories within the Tour de France. The now 78 year-old Belgian took 34 Tour stage victories in his lengthy profession. He shares the document with Mark Cavendish. Within the 2024 French Grand Tour, the British sprinter is trying to take the document, however he faces way more competitors than Merckx did in his time. Again then, biking was massive in just a few European international locations, as of late riders come from everywhere in the world.

Cavendish introduced the 2023 Tour de France can be his final

Final season, Cavendish wished to make another try to interrupt Merckx’s document and throughout the 2023 Giro d’Italia Cavendish introduced that this is able to be his final season. This Tour de France can be his stage win ‘final probability saloon’. In Bordeaux he was very shut, however Jasper Philipsen sped previous him within the final metres. Confidence in him breaking the document grew day-to-day, however 24 hours after that second place, ‘Cav’ was sat on the asphalt. A damaged collarbone and the top of his Tour goals. Inside a day of his Tour abandonment, his Astana Qazaqstan group supplied an answer and satisfied him to proceed.

The crash that ended the dream

‘The Manx Missile’ has an especially complicated state of affairs forward of him. Cavendish is not any ‘spring rooster’. Initially of the 2024 Tour, the British rider might be 39 years and 39 days previous. Within the historical past of the Tour de France, just one rider has managed to win a stage older than Cavendish. If we return 60 years, to 1963: The late Pino Cerami received the ninth stage from Bordeaux to Pau that yr. The Belgian was 41 years and 64 days previous on the time. This makes him the oldest stage winner ever.

Pino Cerami – The oldest Tour stage winner at 41 years and 64 days

After him follows Raymond Poulidor, who was 38 years and 91 days previous when he received his stage on Pla d’Adet in 1974. Cavendish would place himself between them together with his document breaking stage victory. As a result of there has solely been one stage winner older than Cavendish, the possibility of a victory is slim. In your entire Tour historical past, 2331 levels have been held. That’s 100%. So one stage was received by somebody older than Cavendish, so that provides Cavendish a 0.04% probability of success.

Equal stage winner on 34 – Eddy Merckx

However judging him solely on his age can be too simple, so we should additionally examine the successful share of the opposite 4 riders with essentially the most victories within the Tour de France. Along with Merckx and Cavendish, each on 34 victories, these are additionally the Frenchman Bernard Hinault on 28, André Leduqc with 25 and André Darrigade on 22. Merckx took 183 levels for his 34 wins, the Brit 210 levels and the Frenchmen 184, 213 and 317 levels. Merckx received one in additional than 5 levels, Cavendish one in additional than six, similar to Hinault. Leduqc and Darrigade received one stage in 9 and fourteen respectively.

Jasper Philipsen obtained the higher of Cavendish on Tour’23 stage 7

In that respect, Cavendish’s common is superb, however these different 4 riders usually are not his opponents, these would be the sprinters of at the moment. If we take a look at the highest sprinters who, extra possible, might be contesting this yr’s Tour sprints; they’re Jasper Philipsen, Dylan Groenewegen, Tim Merlier, Mads Pedersen and Fabio Jakobsen. None of these guys come near Cavendish’s numbers. Merlier is closest with one win in 9 levels, Philipsen in additional than twelve. In that regard, there’s hope for Cav. Logically, as a result of there has solely been one sprinter with a better common: Mario Cipollini. He received twelve of his seventy Tour levels, good for a median of 1 victory out of 5.33 levels. Even Merckx on 5.38, can’t match that.

‘Tremendous Mario’ has the most effective Tour/win ratio

Statistically talking, it’s a one hell of a job for Cavendish at his age to win another stage of the Tour de France in 2024 and make himself the solo document holder of all time stage wins. However nothing is not possible and his entire group might be working for that one win.

All of Astana might be working for that one stage win within the Tour

# A giant thanks to WielerFlits for the inspiration and information. #

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